Worst startup ideas · Checked Sep 16, 2026
Not opinions. Revenue from 941 startups with Stripe-verified revenue, plus 1,416 Reddit threads scored for business potential.
below the $2,310 median for all 941 startupsabove it · TrustMRR, May 2026
About half of new US businesses close within five years: 51.4% of new establishments are still open after five years and 34.7% after ten. Among 431 venture-backed startups that shut down since 2023, the most cited reasons were running out of capital (70%) and poor product-market fit (43%).
New US businesses still open after
BLS Business Employment Dynamics, cohorts through March 2025
Why startups fail: reasons cited in 431 shutdowns
CB Insights, VC-backed shutdowns since 2023 · March 2026
Each one backed by revenue or Reddit data
266 AI startups share one category. Their median is $2,000 a month, below the $2,473 every other startup makes, and 50% lost revenue in the last 30 days (vs 39% of the rest). On Product Hunt, 13 of the top 15 launches of 2025 were AI.
AI that does one job for one industry, sold to the people who already pay to get that job done.
40% of productivity startups make under $1,000 a month, the highest share of the 12 biggest categories.
A workflow tool a business pays for because it saves one specific person hours every week.
The median health and fitness startup makes $1,450 a month across 41 startups.
Software for the businesses in the space: studios, clinics, coaches and gym owners.
Education is the #5 most crowded category (57 startups) with a median of $2,083 a month.
Tools for the people who teach, run programs or sell courses, not for the students.
Threads with 1 to 9 upvotes score 8+ out of 10 35.1% of the time. A popular gripe collects upvotes; that doesn't make it a business.
Small threads where someone describes paying for, or hacking together, a workaround.
The average across all 1,416 threads is 29.1%. Threads where someone does a task manually score 53.6%.
Look for people doing a job manually or in a spreadsheet. That is where buyers are.
It was the most cited reason after running out of capital (70%), which CB Insights calls the final cause of death rather than the root problem.
Sell it before you build it: a landing page, a price and 20 conversations with people who have the problem.
Share of Reddit threads scoring 8+ out of 10 for business potential
By upvotes on the thread
1,306 threads with at least one upvote
By a phrase in the thread
1,416 threads · green = above the average
Two or more of these and it's worth rethinking before you build
Highest median monthly revenue, categories with 20+ startups
About half of new US businesses close within five years. Of new private-sector establishments, 77.9% are still open after one year, 51.4% after five and 34.7% after ten (BLS). Among 431 venture-backed startups that shut down since 2023, 70% ran out of capital and 43% cited poor product-market fit (CB Insights).
Usually for more than one reason. In CB Insights' analysis of 431 venture-backed startups that shut down since 2023, 70% ran out of capital, 43% cited poor product-market fit, 29% bad timing and 19% unsustainable unit economics. Running out of money is usually how a startup ends; the root problem is more often a product not enough people will pay for.
Based on what 941 startups with verified revenue actually earn: general-purpose AI wrappers (28% of all startups, median $2,000 a month), productivity and to-do apps (median $1,144, the lowest of any large category), and consumer health and fitness apps (only 5% reach $10,000 a month). Ideas copied from the most upvoted Reddit complaints also score poorly: only 10.3% of threads with 1,000+ upvotes rate as strong business ideas.
Not automatically, but a general AI tool starts in the most crowded category there is. 266 of the 941 startups with verified revenue are AI tools. Their median revenue is $2,000 a month against $2,473 for everyone else, and 50% lost revenue in the last 30 days, compared with 39% of other startups.
Check whether people already spend time or money on the problem. In 1,416 Reddit threads scored for business potential, threads mentioning doing something manually scored 8+ out of 10 53.6% of the time and threads mentioning spreadsheets 53.3%, while threads asking for an alternative to an existing product scored 18%. If nobody is hacking together a workaround today, that is a red flag.
Revenue figures are medians by category. TrustMRR only lists active startups with at least $500 in monthly recurring revenue, so these are startups that already got paying customers; the typical attempt earns less. Reddit scores are BID's 0 to 10 AI estimate of how strong a business each complaint points to, not a guarantee.
You just haven't seen it yet.